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East Pacific/2015/03E/Archive/2
Public Advisory TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 2 WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING WIKIA 1000PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 ...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO BE A TROPICAL STORM BY TOMORROW... SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ------------------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...12.4N 99.6W ABOUT 310 MI...495 KM S OF ACAPULCO MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 KT...35 MPH...55 KM/H MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES PRESENT MOVEMENT...N AT 9 KT...10 MPH...17 KM/H DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------------------- At 1000 pm CDT, the center of Tropical Depression Three-E was located at 12.4N 99.6W, or about 310 miles (495 km) south-southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds were 30 knots (35 mph; 55 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 1003 mb (hPa; 29.62 inHg), and the system was moving northward at 9 knots (10 mph; 17 km/h). Atmospheric conditions are favorable for further intensification, and the system is likely to become a tropical storm tomorrow morning. NEXT ADVISORY ------------------- Next complete advisory at 0400am CDT. $$ Forecaster Kalassak Discussion TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING WIKIA 1000PM CDT WED JUN 10 2015 Thunderstorm activity continues to organize within the system via increasingly organized spiral banding on visible satellite imagery. 00z satellite intensity estimates were T2.0/30kt and T2.5/35kt per SAB and TAFB, respectively. Despite increasing organization of the system, overall stormwide convection has decreased since last advisory, though some new convection is firing west of the storm center. As such, the intensity is set with a bias toward SAB. Atmospheric conditions are expected to continue to be favorable for intensification, in addition to warm sea surface temperatures near or above 29C in the region. Models suggest great potential for intensification over the next two to three days as the storm approaches the Mexican coastline, with disagreement beyond that whether intensification could continue or stall. This advisory calls for a steady intensification with the pace slowing after 72 hours. The tropical depression has been travelling westward since the last advisory. Though this motion is expected to shift northward throughout tomorrow as the system is affected by a break between two high pressure systems to the north. Three-E will likely take this northward route north-northeast toward the coastline for about 48 hours before the ridge to the northwest builds north of the cyclone, forcing a more westerly motion. This strengthening will decide how much the cyclone's motion and track shifts west. Model guidance seems relatively confident that the system should stay offshore along a west-northwesterly track. A few GFS ensemble outliers bring the system onshore, but do not confidently predict where. This track could change, but this forecast will follow the model consensus and keep the storm near, but off the coast. Nonetheless, this storm has the potential to effect the Mexican coastline via heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and high waves offshore. Interests along the coastline should monitor the development of this storm. INIT 11/0300Z 12.4N 99.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 12HR 11/1200Z 13.0N 100.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24HR 12/0000Z 13.7N 100.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36HR 12/1200Z 14.4N 100.2W 50 KT 60 MPH 48HR 13/0000Z 14.8N 100.0W 65 KT 75 MPH 72HR 14/0000Z 15.9N 100.3W 75 KT 85 MPH 96HR 15/0000Z 16.7N 102.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 120HR 16/0000Z 17.5W 105.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Kalassak